A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
